It has been dubbed The Arab Spring. When I’m feeling idealistic and poetic I too feel excitement at the prospect of regime changes that could result in a more democratic and less immoral political backdrop in areas of the Middle East. But when a wary mood comes over me, I’m prone to see events in a less optimistic light.
Social ills and poverty, illiteracy, crumbling infrastructure and political discontent are often the seeds of revolution. None of these problems is easily mended in today’s global economy. Even when motivated by a desire for democracy, well-intentioned uprisings against autocratic authorities have not always worked out, especially where the West is concerned. The Iranian Revolution succeeded in bringing down the Shah but brought in its wake a fundamentalist mess. The Intifada in the West Bank and Gaza evoked more or less democratic elections that brought into power Hamas, a terrorist regime. And their approach to freedom doesn’t mesh with what some of us had hoped for.
Dictators obviously have a stabilizing effect. ‘Protest and you will be shot’ is an effective deterrent to public expression and liberty. But when iron fist rulers that the Arab Spring hopes to bring down leave, I fear their places will be filled not by Western style democracy but rather by those best organized, financed and prepared to step into power. In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood is ubiquitous, its constituents come from every sector. It will be interesting to see how the Coptic and secular communities who played a big role in bringing down Mubarak will be represented by the Muslim Brotherhood that will inevitably enjoy success come the elections this Fall. Their reach extends across the globe. The summer, hosted by senior members of the Muslim Brotherhood, the Founding Conference Of The Arab-Islamic Gathering To Support The Option Of Resistance was attended by representatives from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon, Sudan, Tunisia, Gaza, Morocco, Turkey, Iran and Indonesia. Let’s just say that representatives from religious extremist and terrorist groups including Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah were not excluded from the activities.
True, the situation is not black and white and obviously differs somewhat from country to country. But when the oppressed come to power I strongly suspect that they will themselves become the new oppressors. There is just so much potential for good intentions being hijacked by religious extremism.
